Arakan Army: A Critical Examination of Secret Agendas and Regional Threats

By Maung Hla Myint | Arakan Now | Op-Ed

The Arakan Army (AA), a well-armed insurgent group primarily operating in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, has been active since its formation in 2009. Ostensibly, the AA presents itself as a defender of the Rakhine people, fighting for ethnic rights, local autonomy, and cultural preservation. However, closer analysis exposes a far more ambitious and secretive agenda, extending beyond ethnic protection to the establishment of an independent Arakan kingdom, referred to as Rakitha, with implications that reach across national borders. This report critically examines the AA’s objectives, recruitment, territorial ambitions, and the risks they pose to Myanmar and neighboring countries.

The “Open Secret” of the Arakan Army

While the AA publicly frames itself as a liberation movement for the Rakhine people, the open secret lies in their broader ambitions: the re-establishment of an independent Arakan state. The AA invokes Rakitha, an imagined ancient Arakan kingdom, as the ideological foundation for this objective. Rakitha is not merely symbolic; it represents the AA’s vision of a fully independent state, restoring territorial boundaries that predate modern Myanmar.

This narrative provides a veneer of legitimacy to what is essentially an expansionist agenda. By framing their struggle as a historic restoration, the AA seeks to justify territorial ambitions that extend beyond Myanmar’s current borders into neighboring countries, including India and Bangladesh. This approach masks the true nature of their activities, making it a strategic and ideological instrument rather than a purely ethnic defense initiative.

Strategic Naming: Arakan Army vs. Rakhine Army

The AA’s choice of name is deliberate and symbolic. Instead of adopting “Rakhine Army,” which would suggest a narrow ethnic insurgency, the group chose “Arakan Army” to evoke the historical Arakan kingdom. This historical framing allows the AA to present itself as a state-building force rather than merely an ethnic militia.

• Arakan refers to a kingdom that existed for centuries before modern state boundaries were established.

• The AA’s rhetoric emphasizes sovereignty, independence, and territorial reclamation, signaling ambitions that far exceed ethnic protection.

By adopting this name, the AA appeals to historical legitimacy, creating a narrative that resonates with nationalist sentiment among the Rakhine population and potentially attracts sympathizers from a wider geographic area.

Territorial Ambitions and Expansionist Goals

The AA’s vision of Rakitha includes a geographic area that spans not only Rakhine State but also parts of neighboring countries. Analysis of the group’s statements, operations, and historical narratives indicates that their territorial map includes:

• Mizoram (India) – as a potential expansion or destabilization target

• Tripura (India) – historically influenced by Arakan culture; potential recruitment base

• Arunachal Pradesh & Manipur (India) – strategic buffer zones for cross-border mobility

• Chittagong Hill Tracts (Bangladesh) – gateway for cross-border operations

• Paletwa (Myanmar) – a strategic area linking Rakhine to neighboring states

This territorial vision is alarming as it suggests the AA is not content with autonomy within Myanmar but actively seeks to redraw borders, undermining regional security. Their map of influence reveals a hidden agenda aimed at regional destabilization and the creation of a transnational insurgent network.

Force Strength and Recruitment

The AA claims to have a substantial fighting force. According to their statements, they maintain over 30,000 fighters, while independent analysts estimate their true strength to be closer to 20,000. What is particularly concerning is the composition of these forces, which includes recruits from outside Myanmar:

• 1% Nepalese fighters

• 2% Indian fighters

• 3% Bangladeshi fighters

Although these percentages are small, they indicate a strategic effort to internationalize the insurgency, recruit foreign combatants, and expand influence beyond domestic borders. This diverse composition also raises the possibility of cross-border operations, recruitment networks, and the smuggling of weapons and resources into sensitive areas of India and Bangladesh.

Secret Agendas and Underlying Strategies

The AA’s publicly stated mission contrasts sharply with its covert objectives. The organization’s hidden agendas include:

1. State-building Under the Guise of Ethnic Liberation

• The creation of an independent Arakan state is framed as a restoration of historical justice.

• The AA’s rhetoric masks a strategic, territorial ambition that challenges Myanmar’s sovereignty.

2. Cross-Border Instability

• The inclusion of Indian and Bangladeshi regions in their territorial map indicates a willingness to interfere in neighboring countries.

• Recruitment and operations that cross national borders increase regional security risks, potentially creating conflicts with India and Bangladesh.

3. Manipulation of Historical Narratives

• The invocation of Rakitha serves as a powerful ideological tool to mobilize local support while providing moral justification for expansionist aims.

• This narrative obscures the militarized, political, and strategic nature of the AA’s activities.

4. Militarization of Civilian Areas

• In Rakhine State, the AA operates among civilian populations, using them as shields and recruiting sources.

• Such tactics lead to displacement, humanitarian crises, and heightened insecurity, undermining the well-being of local communities.

Regional and International Implications

The AA’s secret agendas have serious implications for regional security and stability:

• Myanmar: The AA’s pursuit of independence challenges the territorial integrity of Myanmar, prolongs conflict, and impedes peace negotiations.

• India and Bangladesh: The AA’s cross-border vision threatens the stability of neighboring regions, particularly Mizoram, Tripura, and the Chittagong Hill Tracts. The recruitment of foreign fighters raises the risk of insurgency spreading beyond Myanmar.

• Humanitarian Impact: Civilians in Rakhine State face displacement, violence, and economic disruption due to ongoing AA operations. The militarization of local areas further exacerbates these crises.

Why should Bangladesh, India and Nepal designate the Arakan Army as a terrorist armed group?

Bangladesh, India, and Nepal should designate the Arakan Army (AA) as a terrorist armed group due to its hidden expansionist agenda and destabilizing activities across the region. While the AA presents itself as a defender of Rakhine identity, it does not support Myanmar’s federal democratic framework and instead pursues the creation of an independent Arakan state (Rakitha), directly undermining Myanmar’s sovereignty. Its vision extends beyond Myanmar’s borders to include territories in India—such as Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, and Manipur—and Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts, posing a serious threat to the territorial integrity of these countries. The group has reportedly recruited fighters from Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, raising the risk of transnational militancy and cross-border insurgency. Through militarization and territorial ambitions, the AA has the potential to destabilize sensitive regions, incite separatist unrest, and trigger humanitarian crises similar to those in Rakhine State. By formally designating the AA as a terrorist armed group, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal can proactively contain its influence, prevent infiltration, and safeguard regional security, acknowledging that the AA’s ultimate goal of re-establishing an independent Arakan kingdom constitutes a direct and ongoing threat to neighboring states.

The Arakan Army represents a complex and multidimensional threat. While presenting itself as an ethnic liberation movement, its secret agendas reveal ambitions of territorial expansion, state-building, and cross-border destabilization. By invoking Rakitha, recruiting foreign fighters, and framing itself as a historical restoration project, the AA pursues objectives that go far beyond local autonomy.

Policymakers and security agencies must recognize that the AA’s activities are not limited to Myanmar’s borders. Their territorial ambitions and cross-border recruitment strategies present a potential risk to regional security in South and Southeast Asia. Understanding the AA’s true motives is essential for developing effective countermeasures, ensuring stability, and protecting civilian populations from further humanitarian crises.

In summary, the Arakan Army’s public narrative of ethnic defense is a strategic façade. The organization’s hidden goals of restoring an ancient Arakan kingdom, expanding influence into India and Bangladesh, and creating a militarized network highlight the necessity of vigilance, international cooperation, and proactive security measures to counteract their destabilizing ambitions.