Dhaka Ignored Early Warning on Rohingya Influx

Arakan Now | 20 June 2025

Bangladesh had prior warning of the impending Rohingya influx in 2017, as revealed by a letter from its embassy in Myanmar. The letter, sent weeks before the mass displacement began, recommended strengthening the country’s border in anticipation of a possible refugee crisis.

Despite this early warning, no national consensus was reached, and the government made no firm decisions, said Sufiur Rahman, the then Bangladesh ambassador to Myanmar.

Rahman shared this information at a seminar titled "Rohingya, Rakhine, and the Context of Myanmar: Bangladesh's Risks", held yesterday at the Jatiya Press Club and organized by the Neeti Gobeshana Kendra, a policy research think tank.

In August 2017, around 750,000 Rohingyas fled a brutal military campaign in Rakhine State and took shelter in Cox’s Bazar. Since then, no repatriation has occurred despite several diplomatic attempts. The Rohingya population in Bangladesh has since grown to over one million, causing environmental, financial, security, and diplomatic challenges.

"We provided specific information from the embassy. The first attack on the Rohingyas occurred on August 25, 2017. I had sent a letter to Dhaka on August 11. The title was *‘A New Phase of Volatility in Rakhine and Its Possible Implications’,” said Sufiur Rahman, now a senior research fellow at the South Asia Institute of Peace and Governance (NSU).

In his letter, Rahman warned that Bangladesh could face a new wave of refugees from Buthidaung and Rathedaung in northern Rakhine, and urged the government to engage the international community to pressure Myanmar into de-escalating tensions. He also recommended preparations to prevent a large-scale influx.

Rahman added that on August 25, he met with UN officials and proposed the declaration of a safe zone in Rakhine. However, the idea failed to gain traction due to opposition from Russia and China at the international level. Despite this, Bangladesh adopted the safe zone concept as part of its national policy at the time.

Reflecting on the events of 2017, Rahman criticized the country’s decision-making process, describing it as flawed and lacking national consensus — a situation he believes still persists today.

Also speaking at the seminar, Dr. Dilara Chowdhury, a noted political scientist, said that previous governments failed to open communication with the Arakan Army. Without such engagement, she argued, Rohingya repatriation is unlikely.

📸 Photo: Reuters